Polls at odds

After a dearth of Scottish polls Datapraxis have published a UK-wide seat projection based upon 270,000 YouGov interviews which were run through their predictive MRP model. SCOT goes POP suggests the results should be taken seriously. This gives results of –

Conservatives 349
Labour 213
SNP 49
Liberal Democrats 14
Plaid Cymru 5
Greens 1
Speaker 1

So a 48 seat majority for the Tories with the LibDems not making the huge breakthrough they predicted, and Jo Swinson as far away from incumbency in Number 10 as ever. 49 seats for the SNP suggests a number of Scottish Tory seats would fall to them.

However a Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times puts something of a damper on these figures, indicating –

SNP 40% (+1)
Conservatives 28% (+7)
Labour 20% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-2)

Figures in brackets indicate change from Panelbase’s 9-11 October poll.

Under this the Tories would lose only one of their seats and Scottish Labour would retain only one.

Further analysis from SCOT goes POP – Seat projection suggests SNP landslide and Lib Dem meltdown and First full-scale Scottish poll of the campaign suggests SNP vote has INCREASED – can be read here.